if 2024 The global oil casing market is still in its infancy‘Weak recovery’Channel wandering，then 2025 Year is the starting point for comprehensive acceleration。”10 end of the month，At the International Petroleum Equipment Summit in Geneva, Switzerland，Fortune Business Insights Senior Analyst Lucas Wong Ignite the entire scene with a line chart：2024 year 179 USD100mn，2025 year 194 USD100mn，2032 Year straight pointing 298.4 USD100mn，Annual compound growth rate 6.34%，Significantly higher than in the past five years 4.1% the mean。
On the demand side“The first fire”From deep water、Ultra deep water。2025—2027 Global deepwater oil and gas capital expenditures are expected to reach as high as 790 USD100mn，Year on year increase 17%，Under the Salt in Brazil、Guyana、Angola's three major deep-sea blocks will consume casing in total 118 ten thousand tons，Accounting for the global increase in demand 21%。“In 2000 Meter depth、150℃ Well temperature、100MPa Under well pressure environment，Every meter of casing has high added value。”Schlumberger casing business president revealed，its 2025 year Q3 The order has been scheduled to 2026 year Q2，Average premium 18%。
The second fire is North American shale gas“The Second Revolution”。EIA The data shows，2025 Annual shale gas production in the United States is expected to break through 1.1 Trillion cubic meters，year-on-year increase 9.8%；Horizontal segment length from 2020 annual average 2800 Rice increase to 3200 rice，The amount of casing used in a single well is determined by 185 Ton increase 225 ton。More importantly，Permian Basin 70% Xinjing adopts“Super three-stage fracturing”，Pump pressure up to 140MPa，Force the homework company to P110 Upgrade the steel grade to Q125 even V140，The price of ton pipes has risen 11%。
China has contributed the third flame。To ensure energy security，2025 The first breakthrough in domestic oil and gas exploration investment in the year 3000 RMB100mn，PetroChina、Sinopec、Three major companies of CNOOC plan to drill ultra deep wells 320 mouth，Year on year increase 45%。Tarim 9000 rice“Deepearth Tower 1 well”、Sichuan 8800 rice“Fukagawa Science and Technology 1 well”Drill successively，Drive ultra-high anti extrusion、High alloy casing demand 12 ten thousand tons，Localization rate from 2020 year 75% upgrade to 2025 year 92%，Substitute import amount 4.8 USD100mn。
however，Behind prosperity lies hidden risks。
One is the price of raw materials“roller coaster”。2025 year 4 moon，Tangshan Q235 The billet once soared to 4270 yuan/ton，Increased compared to the beginning of the year 28%，Rising cost per ton of pipe for casing production enterprises 420 yuan；9 The month has fallen back again 3450 yuan，Severe fluctuations make small and medium-sized factories“Talking about monochrome transformation”。
Secondly, there is a shortage of transportation capacity。Red Sea Crisis、Panama drought combined with North American railway strike，lead to 2025 year Q3 Global ocean freight rates for casing increase year-on-year 62%，European clients are forced to accept CFR Price comparison FOB tall 110 dollar/Ton of“Landing balance”。
The third is a stricter environmental threshold。European Union CBAM 2026 year 1 Covering steel pipes from the beginning of the month，The exporter of casing must provide“direct+indirect”Carbon emission data，Carbon emission difference per ton of steel 0.2tCO₂ Will be expropriated 35 Euro Carbon Border Tax，Equivalent to cutting profits 3%。
One is the price of raw materials“roller coaster”。2025 year 4 moon，Tangshan Q235 The billet once soared to 4270 yuan/ton，Increased compared to the beginning of the year 28%，Rising cost per ton of pipe for casing production enterprises 420 yuan；9 The month has fallen back again 3450 yuan，Severe fluctuations make small and medium-sized factories“Talking about monochrome transformation”。
Secondly, there is a shortage of transportation capacity。Red Sea Crisis、Panama drought combined with North American railway strike，lead to 2025 year Q3 Global ocean freight rates for casing increase year-on-year 62%，European clients are forced to accept CFR Price comparison FOB tall 110 dollar/Ton of“Landing balance”。
The third is a stricter environmental threshold。European Union CBAM 2026 year 1 Covering steel pipes from the beginning of the month，The exporter of casing must provide“direct+indirect”Carbon emission data，Carbon emission difference per ton of steel 0.2tCO₂ Will be expropriated 35 Euro Carbon Border Tax，Equivalent to cutting profits 3%。
prospect 2026—2030 year，The market will emerge from“Quantity increase”steering“Quality improvement”。High resistance to compression、corrosion-resistant、Special thread、titanium alloy、The proportion of high-end casing materials such as composite materials will be 2025 year 28% upgrade to 2030 year 41%，The global average unit price is expected to rise again 7%。For Chinese manufacturing，Who can be the first to complete green and low-carbon certification、Digital flexible production line、Overseas local warehouse“Trinity”layout，Who can be here 298 Cut the fattest piece from the billion dollar cake。